Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -16pts, we're set to open at 2065. USD is in cooling mode, -0.3% in the DXY 96.60s. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$2, whilst Oil is -0.7%.
sp'daily5
Summary
*futures have recovered around half of earlier declines, sp'500 was trading -31pts, around equiv' of 2050.
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We have another interesting day ahead.. as the market is still struggling to cope with the ongoing Greek drama, and the relentless China market implosion.
As things are, I expect yesterdays low of sp'2044 to hold.
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notable early movers...
FXI (China, 1x long) -5.6%
YINN (3x long China).. -17% in the $27s... it was in the low 50s just a few weeks ago
VXX +4%, TVIX/UVXY +7%
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Mr BBRY, aka... Denniger
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Overnight China action: the broad weakness continues, with a new cycle low of 3421, settling -5.9% @ 3507. The fact we've hit the 'natural retrace' in the 3400s is pleasing to see. I suppose we could drop to 3K in the near term... but I find that a little unlikely... assuming the US market can hold the short term low of sp'2044.
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As for me, I still have eyes on INTC-long this morning... anything in the $29.60/50s would be pretty tempting. Early pre-market is already offering the $29.60s... maybe I can get 29.40/30s by 11am?
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*watching Bloomberg, and I'm reminded that Q2 earnings begin today.. with Alcoa (AA) due at the close. Hard to guess how that one might react. From a pure chart perspective, its due an up cycle, but broadly.. looks headed for the $9s by this Sept/Oct. Lower commodity prices will obviously be a major problem.
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Have a good Wednesday
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9.32am.. Eyes sharp... on INTC... if it fails to hold $29.00... that would be a real concern to me.
As it is.. I'd guess it will hold... and back into the 31s.
9.36am.. Smaller 15min cycle still bodes for weakness for probably an hour...
*Despite INTC in the 29.30s... I am holding off.... at least until the 10am hour.... no hurry... let this nonsense build a floor
9.38am.. As things are.. the 2055/50 zone looks prime area for a floor by 11am.
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9.42am.. notable weakness, the USD, -0.5%.. incredible.. considering the Euro/Greek issue
Wednesday, 8 July 2015
USD holding within a giant bull flag
Whilst equities broke a new cycle low of sp'2044, the USD continued to push upward, settling +0.6% @ DXY 97.08. Price structure - since the mid March high of DXY 100.71, remains a giant bull flag... with hyper upside to the 120s in 2016.
USD, daily2
USD, monthly3
Summary
The daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle continues to tick higher, and indeed, is now on the high side. A new down cycle looks due.. which (in theory) should see the USD cool into August.
USD looks set to break out and above the bull flag, trend resistance is currently around DXY 98.50... by late August.. 97.50. Once a weekly/monthly close >101, its open air to the 120s... although that will of course likely take at least 9-12 months.
For the 'dollar doomers' out there, I realise you will vehemently disagree, but then.. would you rather hold Yen, Euros... or (eventually)... Drachma instead?
Ohh yeah, some of you are thinking about physical Gold.. or even Bitcoin. Good luck with that.
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Update from a typically loud Oscar
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see the latest EIA oil report, and the FOMC minutes.
*fed official Williams is speaking at 2pm.. and Mr Market will be listening for any chatter on int' rates.. or even the Greek situation.
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Goodnight from London
USD, daily2
USD, monthly3
Summary
The daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle continues to tick higher, and indeed, is now on the high side. A new down cycle looks due.. which (in theory) should see the USD cool into August.
USD looks set to break out and above the bull flag, trend resistance is currently around DXY 98.50... by late August.. 97.50. Once a weekly/monthly close >101, its open air to the 120s... although that will of course likely take at least 9-12 months.
For the 'dollar doomers' out there, I realise you will vehemently disagree, but then.. would you rather hold Yen, Euros... or (eventually)... Drachma instead?
Ohh yeah, some of you are thinking about physical Gold.. or even Bitcoin. Good luck with that.
--
Update from a typically loud Oscar
---
Looking ahead
Wednesday will see the latest EIA oil report, and the FOMC minutes.
*fed official Williams is speaking at 2pm.. and Mr Market will be listening for any chatter on int' rates.. or even the Greek situation.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US indexes closed moderately higher, having swung from a morning low of sp'2044, settling +12pts @ 2081 (intra
high 2083). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and
0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers some chop, but with broader
upside into August.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Suffice to add... it was a day for the equity bears and bulls! Bears had plenty of opportunity to exit in the sp'2040s... whilst bulls had a better place to go long.
There are a great many reversal daily candles on many charts, and all are suggetive we have a key cycle low of sp'2044... with VIX having maxed out at 19.80 (June 30th'.
Best guess... 2044 holds as a low... with broad upside into August. Whether some indexes - notably the Dow, sp'500, or even NYSE comp' can break marginal new histotic highs in the next up wave... difficult to say.
What is clear... today was surely a day for the bears to have made a run to the EXIT door.
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Suffice to add... it was a day for the equity bears and bulls! Bears had plenty of opportunity to exit in the sp'2040s... whilst bulls had a better place to go long.
There are a great many reversal daily candles on many charts, and all are suggetive we have a key cycle low of sp'2044... with VIX having maxed out at 19.80 (June 30th'.
Best guess... 2044 holds as a low... with broad upside into August. Whether some indexes - notably the Dow, sp'500, or even NYSE comp' can break marginal new histotic highs in the next up wave... difficult to say.
What is clear... today was surely a day for the bears to have made a run to the EXIT door.
--
a little more later...
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