Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately mixed, sp +1pt , we're set to open around 1845, whilst the Dow is  -15pts or so. Metals are set to open fractionally lower, and the summer 2013 lows look set to be broken at some point this year. Notable post earnings weakness in IBM, -4%.


sp'60min

Summary

So...minor chop to start the day.

With $2-3bn of QE money due to kick in after 10am, equity bears should be concerned about the market grinding higher into the afternoon. Any daily close in the sp'1850s will most certainly open up the target zone of 1860/80 by next weeks FOMC.
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Notable early mover: IBM -4%, which will of course have a very strong effect on the Dow, maybe as much as 50/75pts.
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Video update from Oscar




Gold bugs sure won't like what Mr Carboni has to say about the metals, and neither will the equity bears be particularly happy with it.

For me...'stops are (usually) in..emotions are... in', best I can do.
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Have a good day..if you can!

Still not learnt anything

A mere five trading days ago the bears were getting overly excited on a broad equity market decline of around -1.4%. Naturally, the market rebounded the next day. What remains utterly bizarre, if not outright lame, is how the same people are still getting lost in hysteria on every 5/10pt intraday fall.


sp'weekly8

Summary

I suppose I could drone on page after page about how those touting an 'imminent market crash' are idiots, but hey, I'll still call them out on it..at least a little.
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We have a very clear short term floor of sp'1815, and baring a daily close under that, it is absolutely ludicrous for anyone to be touting even a moderate market decline of 5-7%.

At best, it looks like we might slip 3-4%..but not until after the next FOMC...and even then, that will likely be from higher levels, somewhere in the sp'1860/80 zone. As I will keep noting, I still believe the short-side is untradeable until the late spring.

re: weekly'8. I'm holding to the idea that sub'4 will be no stronger than sub'2 - from Aug'2013.  So, as long as the next cycle peak is at least >1870, then 1810/00 will likely hold as a key floor in February.


Looking ahead

There isn't any key econ-data due until Thursday.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2-3bn this Wednesday, bears...beware!
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A moody permabear

I'm getting real tired of the nonsense chatter out there. It seems what few of the old school 'doomer bears' that remain continue to have memory problems. A mere week after many got smashed on a strong Tuesday rebound, we saw a moderate, but similar recovery today.

I'm really not sure who I find more idiotic, the bears who are shorting into a primary upward trend, or the bull maniacs who think there is a genuine economic recovery.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw some mild swings to begin a shortened week, with the sp' closing +5pts @ 1843. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.6%. Near term outlook is bullish, with a target zone of 1860/80 by the next FOMC of Jan'29.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

Arguably the most notable aspect of today were the Transports and the Rus'2000 small cap, both of which broke new historic highs. The Nasdaq Comp' broke a new post 2009 high, but remains around 20% below the March' 2000 tech bubble high of 5132.
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The daily cycles are pretty clear, with the broad upward trends still intact. Equity bears need to break <sp'1815..and <dow 16200 to cause some moderate technical damage.

Frankly, that sure doesn't look likely, and we'll more than likely battle higher into next week. The only issue is how the market will handle the next FOMC announcement. A spike high into the 1890s..even the low 1900s is just about possible.

A more conservative upward target however is 1860/80, before a 3-5 week down cycle, no more than 3-4% for most indexes.

a little more later...