12pm update - bears... briefly in control

With the break of support, the indexes are on the slide..with a primary C wave target of sp'1775/70 by early Thursday. Equity bears should keep in mind the bigger trends..and be mindful of heavy QE-pomo tomorrow. There is noticeable resilience in the momo stocks.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

So...to the surprise of some - myself included, we are seeing a C wave.

With the A wave low being 1779, it is reasonably safe to assume a C target of 1775/70.
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The very best case for the bears would be a test of the rising 50day MA in the low 1760s, but I find that difficult to envision, considering recent price action.

Frankly, everyone should be delighted with today. Bears are getting a chance to exit...and bulls are getting a chance to buy at somewhat more interesting levels.


VIX update from Mr T.



time for lunch


12.21pm.. weak weak weak. Been a fair few weeks since we saw some consistent downside like this.

The key issue remains....bears have a window...and it closes tomorrow morning, when another truck of benny bux is delivered to the primary dealers.

11am update - Bears getting their C wave

The weakness seen in the Trans/R2K yesterday has spread to the wider market, and it would seem the bears are going to get their C wave after all. Prime downside is the 1775/70 zone. Metals and Oil are also somewhat weak. VIX is making a push for the 15s, late today/early Thursday.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Okay bears...especially to all those I know who have had a damn rough few days...

You're getting your wave lower...I just pray to the gods that you are mindful that this is probably just a C wave lower..and not the apocalypse wave that some are still touting!

Best guess...a brief drop to the 1775/70 zone..before renewed strength in the remainder of the month.
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Notable weakness in RIG, having broken under the 50/200 MAs
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11.13am.. the momo stocks are catching a bid again.. NFLX, AAPL, AMZN..and the TWTR..all with gains.

Considering the earlier break though, main market should remain weak into early Thursday.

Friday'13th...bears should be out by then..yes?  


11.28am.. A break under the hourly 200MA of 1785..should open up another 10/15pts lower by early Thursday.

I have to say..I think the bears are getting a pre-Santa gift here. 

10am update - minor support fails

Equities open with some mixed chop, and the sp' has failed to hold what was a bull flag on the hourly cycle. Bears have a narrow window to knock the market lower, <1779, to complete an ABC scenario. Metals look weak, stuck under broken support - a significant drop is viable into year end.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

So...we're seeing a market that is actually starting to slide...surprisingly.

..the ABC scenario is back on.

Bears arguably have a very short window until early tomorrow, when another truck load of QE-pomo is delivered. For all those on the short side...now you have a chance...

Downside targets

Primary 1775/70
Secondary: 50 day MA around 1760.
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10.14am.. well, no QE today..no real news due...bears have their chance to make their C wave to the low 1770s..which seems 'best case'.

Weakness everywhere...even the FB is lower by 30 cents..ohh the humanity!


10.32am...washing out all the weak bull hands. Another 15/20pts lower..and that should be it.

I realise..a lot will be relieved at this decline...the much needed C wave ! You're getting your chance to exit !