3pm update - another snap lower into the close?

The last few days have seen rather impressive closing hour falls for the bears. Today we've already seen a bounce from sp'1646 to 1662. Arguably, the bulls have had their bounce...and some selling into the close would seem more likely than not.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*VIX is cooling down, but it should at least hold the 19/18s..before the next big jump higher -which would be a target of 23 - the Dec' spike high.
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All things considered...this is a very weak market..and the bounces are to be shorted.
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*metals and Oil both remain weak..despite the mainstream realisation that QE taper is off the agenda until next year.
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3.08pm.. sp'1662/61...and looking kinda stuck. Equity bears should be content with any close back in the 1650s.

King O' due to formally announce Yellen as nominee for the new money printer CEO  job.
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3.31pm... Well, Yellen will get the blame (at least partly) for the next collapse wave..so...good luck to her with that, lol
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Market looking a touch weak..best bear hope would be a close under the 10MA of 1657.

Good work if you can get it!


3.46pm..the rats are selling into the close again. Who the hell would be going long anyway, not least with the Dow screaming all sorts of trouble.

Seeking a close <1657


3.50pm..look at those stinky rats sell. No reason to be long until an agreement is reached..and that sure won't be this week.

2pm update - time for some fed-speak

The main indexes have bounced from morning lows, but we're only talking about very minor gains of 0.25% or so. The FOMC minutes could easily be used as the excuse to push higher. Equity bears really just need to hold any bounce <1670. VIX is naturally lower, but is comfortably holding the 19s.


sp'60min

Summary

...well, lets see what money printing maniacs were saying last month.

Considering the oversold condition (although I never really liked the term) maybe another hour up....but weakness into the close.

After all, the likelihood of an agreement before next week..appears to be zero...in which case we should continue to broadly fall into the coming weekend.
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Momo stocks continue to be especially weak...

AMZN, daily

$280/270s don't look too hard to hit..if sp' fails to hold 1627 low.
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2.07pm...market is a touch higher..but really, its nothing significant, and if we again see weakness into the close, a weekly close in the sp'1640/30s looks viable.


2.19pm.. market smells ...WEAK. Something that not many note noticed...Oil is down 1.8% Metals remain somewhat weak, with Silver -2%

1pm update - waiting for the two leaders to break

The two market leaders - Trans/R2K, are both holding within their broadly bullish pattern. Yet, with the Dow now having decisively broken all key supports, it would appear it is just a matter of time before the two leaders break, offering a further 4-6% lower.


R2K, daily

Trans, daily

Summary

*we have the FOMC minutes at 2pm. Do not be surprised if the market uses it as an excuse to ramp, on the notion that QE will remain at $85bn until next spring - which I'm guessing is now a given.
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Regardless of the rest of today, the damage to the Dow has been done.

I'm actually somewhat bemused how I seem to be the only one who is noting that we have just seen the first lower low on a main index since Oct'2011.

Maybe I'm just not reading around enough?
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Miners having problems (as ever)...

GDX, monthly

The 2008 lows look to be hit..eventually, not least if Gold/Silver continue to broadly decline into 2014. Very heavy trading volume in GDX, although a large part of that is simply due to the lower price.
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1.24pm...no doubt a few are concerned of FOMC chatter ramping this market into the close.

Market testing the hourly 10MA, which has largely held as resistance for some weeks.