Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 1692. Precious metals are a touch weak, Gold -$5, no doubt pressured by the stronger dollar +0.5%. Bulls are going to have serious problems breaking sp'1700.


sp'60min

Summary

So..we're set to open a little higher, but its still far short of what the bulls need.

Arguably, the only way they are going to clear 1700..or even more importantly, 1709, is with a giant gap higher, and I sure don't expect that this week.
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*retail sales come in a touch lighter than expected, +0.2%...pretty lame for summer.
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I remain on the sidelines, and have no real inclination to re-short the indexes until after the QEs of Thur/Friday...and opex.
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VIdeo update from Mr Carboni




Hmm, it would seem Permabull is still on the 'Europe is coming online/recovery' nonsense wagon..

*Hey Oscar want to come visit this side of the Ocean, how about Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland..ohh, or maybe Italy too ? Or perhaps the 'we don't need to manufacture anything' UK ?

Bearish into September

The market looks set for minor price chop for the rest of this week, but things should get more dynamic in the latter half of August. So long as the sp'1709 high holds, bears should have some good short-side opportunities in the weeks ahead.


sp'weekly7 - bearish outlook

sp'weekly8 - 'best guess', post September

Summary

To start the week, we have our second blue candle on the 'rainbow' weekly charts. Certainly, we could see another 2-4 blue candles, before any significant downside in September. Most previous multi-week down cycles usually take a good month or two to solidify a top.

I am keeping an open mind on the sp'1709 high being taken out, but I'm guessing no. Market looks tired, and stuck <1700.

As for chart'8, yes..that remains the more 'balanced' best guess. I'm sure not liking the idea of a rally all the way into spring 2014, but baring a FULL end to QE-pomo, the market does look set for much higher levels.

There is a viable scenario where a Blue V wave (or however you want to count it), might put in a lower high in late Sept/October, but for now..that is a mere 'distant hope'.

Special note

The downside target in the next multi-week down wave remains the lower weekly bollinger...currently @ 1544..but rising each and every day. By mid/late September, bears are going to face a wall in the sp'1600/1575 zone.


Looking ahead

Tuesday has retail sales, import/export prices, and business inventories.

*there is no sig' QE until Thursday.
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So...I remain on the sidelines (having bailed at the Monday open of sp'1684), and will be seeking an index re-short, possibly this Thur/Friday, but maybe as late as next Monday. I'm in no hurry, whilst volatility remains this low.


Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes recovered from opening moderate declines, with the sp' settling -2pts at 1689. The two market leaders - Trans/R2K. managed gains of 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for moderately chop, in the sp'1700/1675 zone.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

For the bears, it was just another deeply frustrating day. Despite the indexes opening lower, those declines sure didn't last long, and it was merely a case of 'minor price chop..with bias to the upside'.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for the R2K, but still slipped on the other indexes.

In general, it doesn't look like the bears..or bulls will be able to make anything from this week. The bulls do have two large QEs at the tail end of the week, along with opex

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a little more later...