Daily Index Cycle update

The market bulls made another play to break/hold above the 50 day MA of sp'1624, but again failed. Certainly, the closing hour mini-ramp helped negate the moderate declines to 1606, but the daily candle makes for the second bearish spiky top this week.


sp'daily5

Summary

Certainly, today wasn't a 'great victory' for the bears. In many ways, bears are merely - so far at least, able to contain the recent ramp from 1560, keeping the market restrained under the old channel support (better seen on the weekly charts).

 *see MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, I think we might have an important 'fail 2'. We'll know by the Friday close, if we're consistently trading back <1600.
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What is clear, if the bulls can't break >1624 this week, it does seem very likely we'll still see another significant wave lower, down to the 1530s by mid-July. That in itself will make for a far better 'go-long' buying level.

a little more later...

VIX trying to level out

With the sp'500 so far unable to break/hold above the key 50 day MA of 1624, the VIX daily trends are starting to suggest a possible turn/levelling phase. The VIX closed +0.4% @ 16.44. Daily MACD cycle is still ticking lower, but a clear turn now looks viable by late Friday.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, VIX 20s still look a long way up, and don't appear viable until next week...if at all this month.
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Equity bears should be desperate to see the sp' put in a daily close <1600, with the VIX back in the 18/19s. Right now, that seems the 'best bear case' by the Friday close.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The second consecutive day where the market made a serious attempt to break/hold above the important 50 day MA (sp'1624), but failed. A series of news stories helped pressure the market lower across the afternoon, and the daily index/VIX trends are appearing to turn.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

For the bears, the phrase 'at least we didn't close in the mid 1620s' comes to mind.

The largely flat close should be seen as a start, and is certainly not any kind of confirmation of a trend change.

Bears unquestionably need a daily close <1600, and even then, the bigger weekly charts won't be fully on track until we're persistently trading in the 1570s..or lower.
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Wednesday has very significant QE, and bears will likely struggle to prevent a third challenge of the 50 day MA.

more later..on the VIX