Tuesday 2 July 2013

Closing Brief

The second consecutive day where the market made a serious attempt to break/hold above the important 50 day MA (sp'1624), but failed. A series of news stories helped pressure the market lower across the afternoon, and the daily index/VIX trends are appearing to turn.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

For the bears, the phrase 'at least we didn't close in the mid 1620s' comes to mind.

The largely flat close should be seen as a start, and is certainly not any kind of confirmation of a trend change.

Bears unquestionably need a daily close <1600, and even then, the bigger weekly charts won't be fully on track until we're persistently trading in the 1570s..or lower.
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Wednesday has very significant QE, and bears will likely struggle to prevent a third challenge of the 50 day MA.

more later..on the VIX