Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp+6pts, we're set to open @ 1656. Precious metals are slightly weak, whilst Oil is +0.75%. USD is significantly higher, +0.6%. Today will likely be a choppy opex, fuelled by a very large QE of 5bn. Bears...beware.


sp'60min

SLV, daily

Summary

Those bears hoping for follow through from yesterdays closing hour will already be annoyed. I suppose will merely want to short the opening pop, but really, its opex..and the big pomo are going to be a real problem.

Frankly, there is little reason why we couldn't break new index highs today.
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*Looks like SLV will open moderately lower. Clearly nothing significant though. Silver bears need a break into the 21.50s for things to get interesting.

Oscar..on Gold



Its almost the weekend!

Bears will struggle to hit sp'1600

Despite a little weakness in the closing hour, the weekly and monthly index charts are 100% bullish. There is absolutely no reason why anyone can justifiably get 'significantly' bearish. First key support in the near term is the sp'1600/1597 zone, bears will struggle just to get that far.


sp'daily3 - fib levels

sp'weekly

Summary

A simple fibonacci chart, highlights the 1600 level, which would be a very natural minor retracement of 3-4%. I just can't see the market decisively breaking <1600 any time soon though. The underlying momentum is just so strong to the upside.


Looking ahead

Friday is opex, but perhaps even more importantly, its a 5bn QE-pomo day. Even if tomorrow morning opens with a little weakness into the low sp'1640s, it looks exceedingly difficult for the bears to break any lower.

There are two pieces of econ-data for the market to look at - consumer sentiment and leading indicators. Although as we saw today, the market doesn't seem to care about any negative data.

Indeed, with the pomo money out there, it'd not be surprising if we comfortably close the week in the sp'1650s.

*I hold SLV (short) overnight, seeking a further major wave lower in the precious metals, with SLV <20.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed moderately lower, lead by the Transports which closed -0.8%. On any basis, the market is due at least a minor retracement of 2-4%, but that will be difficult whilst the QE-pomo continues. Bears face a market that is still being fully propped up by the Fed.


R2K

SP

Trans

Summary

The closing hour had at least some price action to wrap up what was generally a dull day of nothing. Were tomorrow not opex, nor with a giant 5bn of POMO money, I'd be pretty bearish for tomorrow.

My best guess, there is a reasonably chance of a few percent lower...but AFTER opex. It would be a real surprise to see the market unravel on an opex, whilst fuelled with a very large POMO.

In terms of near term rising support, most indexes have a very clear 3% downside buffer zone before breaking the accelerated channel.

I will hold to the bigger weekly charts, which suggest general upside into August, with Trans in the low 7000s, and Sp'1800s.

a little more later...