Friday 17 May 2013

Bears will struggle to hit sp'1600

Despite a little weakness in the closing hour, the weekly and monthly index charts are 100% bullish. There is absolutely no reason why anyone can justifiably get 'significantly' bearish. First key support in the near term is the sp'1600/1597 zone, bears will struggle just to get that far.


sp'daily3 - fib levels


sp'weekly


Summary

A simple fibonacci chart, highlights the 1600 level, which would be a very natural minor retracement of 3-4%. I just can't see the market decisively breaking <1600 any time soon though. The underlying momentum is just so strong to the upside.


Looking ahead

Friday is opex, but perhaps even more importantly, its a 5bn QE-pomo day. Even if tomorrow morning opens with a little weakness into the low sp'1640s, it looks exceedingly difficult for the bears to break any lower.

There are two pieces of econ-data for the market to look at - consumer sentiment and leading indicators. Although as we saw today, the market doesn't seem to care about any negative data.

Indeed, with the pomo money out there, it'd not be surprising if we comfortably close the week in the sp'1650s.

*I hold SLV (short) overnight, seeking a further major wave lower in the precious metals, with SLV <20.
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Goodnight from London