Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed moderately lower, lead by the Transports which closed -0.8%. On any basis, the market is due at least a minor retracement of 2-4%, but that will be difficult whilst the QE-pomo continues. Bears face a market that is still being fully propped up by the Fed.


R2K

SP

Trans

Summary

The closing hour had at least some price action to wrap up what was generally a dull day of nothing. Were tomorrow not opex, nor with a giant 5bn of POMO money, I'd be pretty bearish for tomorrow.

My best guess, there is a reasonably chance of a few percent lower...but AFTER opex. It would be a real surprise to see the market unravel on an opex, whilst fuelled with a very large POMO.

In terms of near term rising support, most indexes have a very clear 3% downside buffer zone before breaking the accelerated channel.

I will hold to the bigger weekly charts, which suggest general upside into August, with Trans in the low 7000s, and Sp'1800s.

a little more later...