11am update - equities holding together

The equity market is already seeing a provisional bounce..and it has to be said..the hourly charts offer the possibility of a green close. Precious metals remains nuked...Oil is still slipping. Dollar is a touch lower, with VIX higher, but only barely 8%..and its back <13.


sp'60min

Summary

I remain VERY suspicious of these opening declines.

VIX is still saying market is fearless..and as ever..every day is a QE-POMO day.
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I am sitting back..and wondering if I'll catch Oil on a late day bounce.


UPDATE 11.29am... indexes slipping again, and VIX trying to bust a new high.

Tricky day, and I'm glad to be merely watching this nonsense.

Notable movers... GDX, ..and all the miners... HL, FCX, SCCO.  

10am update - tough to break this market

Bears are having problems just breaking this market into the sp'1570s. Precious metals are seeing extreme declines, with Oil similarly weak - but not severe. Until we're trading <sp'1538, bears have no reason to be confident. VIX is higher, but is already cooling off.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Interesting open, but it barely ranks as 'moderate' declines.

I suppose we could trade down to the 1560s today, but that does seem unlikely.
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*I exited USO at the open. I will consider a re-short later today, but that will be dependent on price action.

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UPDATE 10.34am.. I don't trust this morning equity declines at all.

Both the 15/60min cycles are low, a bounce is possible at any time.

VIX is +9%, but 9% of a small number..is still a low VIX.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are somewhat lower, sp-10pts or so, we're set to open in the upper 1570s. Overnight action in the precious metals market was nothing less than nuclear bombardment, with Gold -5%, and Silver -10%. Oil is following their lead.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

For those watching, I think we're seeing some VERY distinct 'little earthquakes' in market land. We've seen Copper break a few weeks ago. The precious metals are now smashed, and Oil is following.

I expect equities to follow, yet..as ever, with the QE-POMO, declines are to be treated with HIGH caution..at least until we're <1538


Best guess for this morning...we level out around sp'1575, with VIX in the mid 13s.  Then its merely a case of seeing how high the usual 'latter day recovery' takes us.

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*I am short Oil - from last Friday afternoon, USO, and will seek an exit at the open.

Near term outlook is mixed, and I'll sure take profits when I have them.

USO, daily2

USO, weekly3

Mid-term objective on USO is 28/27 by June...which would imply Oil in the 80/75 zone..at least.
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updates across the day.. and week.

Good wishes for the trading week ahead

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UPDATE 9.19am...Empire state data came in pretty bad, still not quite recessionary, but it sure ain't bullish for the tail end of Q1.

SP' looks set to open -8pts or so..and maybe that'll increase to 13/15pt by 11am.  Considering the 15/60min cycles are already low, its hard to believe we'll close down more than 1% today.

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Regardless, I look to exit USO (short) at the open, and then sit back....for most of the day.

9.35am... EXITED USO short.   Now..lets see how we trade into the afternoon.
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