Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open around 1411. Most notable so far this morning is the move in the dollar, USD +0.3% @ 79.85. If this trend continues, we will indeed close the year in the 80s.

sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*special note... Intra-day updates will remain sporadic today. I might be back up to full speed for Monday trading.

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So, futures are lower, and those bull maniacs getting excited about yesterdays ramp are buying at bizarrely high levels. I could almost understand if they were buying @ 1390/80s..but 1420, really?

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Bears should be seeking...

VIX weekly close >20. That would be a massive confirmation of yesterdays break through.

A close <1413 would be important to see, preferably...<1405/00.

On the flip side, a close >1420 would be a victory for the bulls.

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re: Sunday. I'm not sure anyone yet knows what the US Govt' has in mind for Sunday. Is there a vote, or ?

What is clear, overnight futures trading on Sunday will be crazy wild. We could (again) be lock limit down on the ES, or see some insane (even if brief) hyper ramp 2-3%.

Regardless of 'news', I will hold to my original targets.

Good wishes for Friday!

Primary target remains SP'1225

Thursday's late day ramp clearly rattled some of those bears who are not yet convinced that we are seeing the beginnings of a major wave lower into the sp'1200s. Despite the afternoon ramp, the indexes are still offering massive downside potential.

Sp'daily4

Sp'monthly3b - count

Sp'weekly2, rainbow

Summary

Today no doubt rattled traders on both sides. The bulls were rattled as we came very close to taking out the sp'1400 level – although Dow'13k did fall, and the bears were rattled in the afternoon as the indexes snapped higher due to another politician saying something.

These sort of crazy moves are going to be the likely norm for some weeks..if not months until a deal is finally reached.

A deal WILL be reached of course, but not before an awful lot of complaining and political squabbling has played out. Really, it could be some months before they finally sit down and agree to something.

Mr Dollar to close 2012 in the USD 80s ?

With just two trading days left of the year, the USD is easily within range of closing in the 80s. The doomer bears seeking lower indexes in early 2013 should certainly be seeking a higher dollar, which would really help keep the lid (at least to some extent) on any crazy ramps, as we saw this afternoon.

USD, daily

USD, monthly2, rainbow

So, as ever, eyes on the dollar, and look for the 80s to be re-taken by the Monday/year end close.

Goodnight from London

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*please note, normal/frequent updates are unlikely until my lousy internet is fixed (next Thursday). I will endeavour..as best I can though.

Daily Index Cycle update

The indexes closed only slightly lower, after a crazy late afternoon ramp – inspired by some US political maniac saying 'something'. Despite the closing ramp, further key levels were broken today, and the bears are continuing to do serious 'technical damage' to the near/mid-term outlook.

*since its been a while that I managed to post some broader updates...here are five of the key indexes...

IWM (representing Rus'2000 small cap)

Nasdaq Comp

Dow

Sp'daily5

Transports

Summary

First, I believe I'm correct in saying, we closed with 'hanging man' candles on most of the daily index charts. So, despite the afternoon ramp, the indexes did close a touch red..and those daily candles are NOT bullish.

With the VIX breaking the 20 threshold, we have another key warning of trouble, and the VIX weekly chart continues to suggest 30/40s are viable within 2-4 weeks.

I do understand if some bears were really rattled by this afternoons action, but really, such ramps are to be expected..not least due to the current political squabbling.
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A little more later.

*please note, normal/frequent updates are unlikely until my lousy Internet is fixed (next Thursday). I will endeavour..as best I can though.