10am update - there go the 1400 stops

We're a mere 20 pts from the April peak.

This is the thing that gets me about the chartists - especially the elliot wavers, if we do hit 1423, that invalidates EVERYTHING they've said since April. All that talk of 'ohh, its a wave'1' etc, it will all have to be thrown into the trash bin

But no, they won't admit that, they can't.

There remain only a few who are suggesting a marginally lower high  <1422 in the near term, before a major move lower. As it is, with the monthly cycle now outright bullish, its hard to argue that 1422 won't be broken.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

VIX is putting in a reversal candle, but they've not been particularly reliable lately.


Summary

Bulls are very close to removing the last set of bear stops at the 1422 peak. Just one more big up day, and we're back into a massively strong market (volume has been irrelevant since summer 2009) with QE yet to come.
 
Its all so bizarre!

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures (for whatever reason) are sp+5pts..we're set to open around the 1400 level.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Looks like the bulls will get a moderate opening gap higher, and stop out all those bears in the 1400/05 level.

I would be very surprised if we can close higher today.

*we have consumer credit data late today at 3pm.

More across the day.

Daily Index Cycle update

A very dull day, and even the last 30 minutes can't really be counted as anything other than 'marginal dullness'. I realise its the sleepy summer season, and the market can't often be expected to be trading briskly, but today must be both embarrassing and disturbing for the exchange managers.

There are just so few 'real people' left, and with Knight capital causing havoc last Thursday morning, no one should have any confidence in what is a very sick, nasty, and near bid less equity market.
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A few of the daily indexes...


sp,daily5

 Dow

 Transports

 
Summary

So..once again the bears will be asking themselves 'is that it?' Sp'1399...just missing the big 1400 again, last seen at the start of May - when the original rollover began. Its not a bad spike for a near-term top, but there is no turn on the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, in fact, its pretty bullish for the next few days.

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A reminder on the doomer count.... - which a few notable others also are seeking in the weeks/months ahead.


sp'daily4 - the doomer count

As I've noted a few times lately, if any such outcome is going to happen, there needs to be a catalyst, something to really spook the market. Right now, there is no sign of anything in the immediate term.

So, even if do get down to sp'1350 this week, we'll very likely just bounce up again..and put in yet another higher high. Things only get interesting if we break into the 1320s..and close <1325. Only then can the doomer bears start to claim 'something' might be underway.

A quiet day, I'll leave it at that. Goodnight