1pm - a confusing mess...in the near term

A real mess of a market today. Sure the indexes are holding onto reasonable gains of 0.75%, but the VIX is green, +3% no less!


Sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Today sure is a tricky one, intra-day moves have already probably annoyed bears and bulls alike. That last hour fall sure did catch a few by surprise.

As noted at the open, the VIX was due to go MACD +cycle on the hourly cycle, and indeed it has..and we have the rare situation of both green indexes and VIX. The bulls should be concerned about this.

So right now, we have slightly overbought indexes on the 60min cycle, but the daily and weekly cycles offer more upside.....all whilst the monthly cycle warns of 'downside to sp'1100...sometime this summer'.

*FB remains endless entertainment..more on that over-valued nonsense later.

12pm update - only the bigger perspective keeps me balanced

Whilst this latest Monday morning rally is still holding to some extent into this afternoon, I'm again trying to keep in mind of just what is happening in the grand picture...


SP'monthly

If you look at the previous two major down cycles of summer 2010/11, you'll see that we often see a significant bounce in the first 1 or 2 down months.

So, as long as we close Thursday (the end of May, how can it be almost June already?), no higher than about 1355/60, the trend is still very much downward.

In the meantime of course, we've probably a few more days of nonsense to come, maybe even a week or two. Yet, its just noise in the bigger picture. I envy the bigger players, who can sit back with non-leveraged ETFs, or super long dated index Puts. They can merely sit back and relax across this summer - with a good stop, no higher than the peak of sp'1422, which should arguably be tightened to around 1395/80.


Quick update on the sp'60min cycle

*ignore the wave count on my hourly charts, I'm as confused as anyone else out there lately. What I am certain of, is the bigger monthly cycles.


IWM, daily - bearish outlook

*most interesting of all so far today, the Rus'2000 index, is putting in a black candle..warning of at least 'weakness after the opening gap UP' in this market. I can't fathom to guess whether this is the top of a 'wave'2 - considering the daily MACD, I'd say 'no, there is more upside to come'. But hey,...here we are..and black candles are NEVER to be dismissed lightly!

Time for lunch!

11am update - a major fail for the bears

The bears had a chance to hold this rally back, but they have clearly failed. The VIX which was initially holding up very well, is now red. The daily index cycles are similarly turning bullish - no matter how bad the news appears...we're back to risk-on mode.


Sp'daily

Sp'weekly - 3 scenarios

Its looking like C' is now out the window. The only issue now is whether we put in a lower high around 1370/80..or just keep on going to break >1422. If the Greeks can magically form a new Govt' in mid-June, then this crazy market will take route A.


Summary

As noted last Friday, the last line in the sand for serious money bears, was sp'1330. We're now comfortably holding over that, and its looking like we'll break above the bear flags on most indexes - if the current gains can hold across the day.

The next issue is how high do we go? Obviously, 1340 - the old support line is major, but considering the momentum MACD cycle is now due to go +cycle late today/early tomorrow...it looks like it will keep on going. - the old resistance level is 1370/80.

*I'd guess the wave-counters will now call this wave'2, with a target somewhere between 1340-80.
--

If the market is pleased with the GDP/Jobs data later this week...this rally could really could just keep on going in June..and beyond - regardless of  how bad the reality is.