Closing Brief

So..we had a mini-ramp to close the day, based on ultra-low volume of course. Mr VIX though - despite closing red, still held up very well considering the rise in the indexes.

Lets look at how those hourly cycles closed...


IWM'60min

Dow

Sp

Summary

*first, ignore the counts on those hourly charts, I don't much like them!

A messy Tuesday overall  I'm sure a lot of bulls would have bailed earlier during that lunch time weakness. Doubtless, they'll be even more annoyed now to see the closing hour mini-ramp!

From the hourly perspective, it sure looks like a big bear flag right now. We'll only know if it is, if we break back below 1300, and then 1291 by the end of this week. We certainly have the possibility, if the latest jobs data sucks this Friday.
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More later...looking at the VIX and those Daily Cycles - the latter of which are still suggesting further index gains to come.

3pm update - last hour sell off.. or mini ramp?

Market holding on tightly to gains of dow +70/75, but that's barely half of the earlier amount. VIX remains green..still! A lot of the mainstream media today understandably focused on the FB nonsense, although that remains ironic coming from such cheer leading maniacs.


Sp'15min cycle

Sp'60min cycle

Summary

I don't often mention the 15min cycle, but you can get a clearer picture of one thing that is the case so far these past few days. We have seen a series of higher lows and higher highs - including today. Only with a break of 1315 can the bears start to get curious again, and even then, they really need a break of the bigger 1300 level - as seen on the 60min cycle.

Bulls will merely want a close over sp'1330, that should at least offer a brief move into the 1350/60 zone later this week.

As I keep noting, in the bigger picture of things, whether we get stuck at 1340, 50...80..it really doesn't matter for the mid-term bearish trader. Its all mere noise...we're going lower across the summer.

More after the close.

2pm update - VIX holding up very well

Highlight of the day so far remains the strength of the VIX. There are really not that many occasions in a given trading year when both the indexes are +0.5% or more, and the VIX is green, maybe just 10 out of around 250 trading days.

The hourly index cycles are a real Bermuda triangle of problems right now. Is it a giant bear flag ? It sure looks like it on the sp'60min cycle. Yet with the break over 1330 this morning, urghh..its just tricky. Only with a break back under 1300 would I feel confident re-shorting.


Sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

We still have two important trading hours left of today. There remains a LOT of key econ-data this week to come - although ADP jobs data is out on Thursday - due to the holidays.Thur/Friday will be very dynamic market days.

*FB due to slip into the 28s,   $9 down..just another $25 to go until 'fair value'


FB, daily

More later....