Thursday 28 January 2016

3pm update - a bull flag is a bull flag

Many will have been understandably dizzy at the ongoing intraday swings, but broader price structure remains a rather clear bull flag. A daily close >sp'1900 will keep open the door for a weekly close in the 1920s - along with VIX losing the key 20 threshold.. and that will give clarity into mid February.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

*note the daily MACD (blue bar histogram) equity cycle, positive for the first time since Dec'31st.
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It is notable that despite the many swings across the last five trading days, the VIX remains relatively subdued (ignoring the arguably 'rogue print' of 27.09).

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I've been going through/updating dozens of individual company charts today.

A few things stood out...

Most of the main stocks look dire... many offer at least 15/20% downside within 2-3 months.
Gold miners are trying to break out of the downward run from 2011

A fair few stocks are already well below their 2008/09 collapse wave lows, and look headed for total destruction.

It'd seem many have already forgotton about Glencore, Freeport, etc.............. industry capitulation is STILL due.
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back at the close