sp'60min
sp'daily3
Summary
*first soft resistance remains the hourly 10MA, which this morning will be in the 1940/35 zone.
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We're clearly seeing the first attempt to clarify that 1920/00 zone is a short term floor.
There is NO question though, broadly.. we're headed much lower in the weeks and months ahead. The sp'1650/1550 zone looks extremely probable by May/June.
For now... there is clearly threat that an overnight ES low is in at 1893.
If that is a low, then a 50% retrace of the down wave from 2081 offers the 2000/1999 threshold.
I'd argue it is overly risky a bounce to play.. as we might simply resume falling later today though.
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Best guess... the cash market to test the overnight low in the 1905/00 zone... and then a bounce into opex, and probably a week beyond.
Sustained action above the monthly 10MA (2030s) and indeed, the sp'2K threshold looks out of range for at least EIGHT months.
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Update from Oscar
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Kirby
As ever, make of that, what you will. I still think the gold bugs are yet to capitulate... and the notion of a USD collapse is ludicrous. Would you rather hold Euros or Yen? Of course, in the minds of Gold bugs, we will all be shopping at Walmart with gold/silver coins in our pockets. There is higher probability of me winning the powerball each week for a year.
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Overnight action...
Japan: CLOSED
China: -5.3% @ 3016. A loss of 3K will confirm that the 2500s are coming... pretty soon.
Germany: currently +0.5% in the 9900s. Sustained action >10K looks unlikely for months.
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... and Bowie died this weekend :(
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Good wishes for the trading week ahead
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8.47am.. sp +10pts... 1932.
Indexes look vulnerable to turning red later today. For the moment, there is ZERO reason - other than technical, to expect a bounce.
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Oil remains a problem for the equity bulls... the loss of the $30 threshold looks a given.. just a matter of in this cycle.. or the next.
*the fact the market was unable to rally on 'good jobs news' remains a pretty bearish event.
... here comes Cramer...
9.06am Well, so far no one wants to buy the market above sp'1935 or so.
Oil is looking problematic, -1.3%.
9.40am... EXITED TVIX-long.... . I just don't like the smaller cycles setup... nevermind the overnight futures reversal.