Monday 11 January 2016

1pm update - no excuses

US equities remain weak, yet cyclically, we're still set for a sig' bounce.. at least to the sp'1975/80 zone. VIX has not confirmed the marginal equity lower low. Oil remains severely weak, -5.0% in the $31s. Copper is $1.97, the 1.75/50 zone looks an easy target for the spring.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

*I have not mentioned it today (and I'm guessing many have noticed it anyway), but despite a marginal new equity low... the VIX did NOT break a new cycle high.

.. and that does not bode well for equity bears who are intending to hold short the market across this week.
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Holding to outlook of an upside bounce... despite the current price action not looking so great.
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As for 'excuses', equity bears/VIX longs, can have NO excuse for any whining later this week if we're climbing into opex.

Friday was a valid time to exit.
This morning was a valid time to exit.

Right NOW is a valid time to exit.. or at the very least... tighten stops!
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1.15pm.. So much for 1913 holding.....    with sp'1910.. VIX still not broken above the Friday high.
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notable strength: NFLX +1.8%...