USD - DXY, weekly
GDP/USD, monthly
Euro/USD, weekly, 7yr
Summary
Weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) for the USD is ticking upward, at the current rate, we'll see a bullish cross in 5-6 weeks.
GDP/USD: critical support is the Feb' low of 1.3830. The ultimate level is from Jan'2009 @ 1.35. ANY price action in the 1.34s or lower would likely result in 'freefall' action to the 1.10s.. or even parity.
Euro: 1.20 remains massive resistance, and the Euro looks to have recently maxed out in the 1.14s. First downside target are the 1.08/1.07s.
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The BREXIT
The UK vote on whether to leave or stay in the EU is June 23rd. It will be a pretty damn important vote, with huge economic and societal implications.
Best guess: the UK populace vote to STAY within the EU.
Why? Think back to the Scottish independence vote. Even though the Scots waited centuries for a vote to regain their independence, when it came down to it.. they were conservative minded.. and stayed.
There is clearly a very significant number of the UK populace who are mad as hell about anything related to mainland Europe... but its still not a clear majority.
Indeed, across the last 15-20yrs, the UK - esp' southern England, has become extremely closely tied with mainland Europe, for business.. as well as for tourism.
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If I'm correct in thinking the UK vote to stay, the UK Pound would rebound, along with the Euro.... with the USD cooling. The implications of a weaker USD would be very bullish for most world equity markets. Further, the precious metals and Oil would likely soar.
In nine weeks time... we'll find out.
Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes
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**Video bonus - Mr Long, with Mr Casey
For those in the mood for some fed/economic chatter... this is superb.