Tuesday, 12 April 2016

11am update - moderate chop

US equity indexes have (not surprisingly) already turned negative, as the bigger daily/weekly cycles continue to swing back toward the equity bears. Net daily declines look due, along with VIX in the 17s. Metals have cooled from early gains, Gold -$1. Oil is +1.5% after a news headline.




*around 10.30am.. a micro hyper-ramp occurred as a news headline about a 'consensus for Russia/Saudi Oil freeze', which saw indexes flip almost 0.5% higher within 90 seconds.

Again, the word 'freeze' sure doesn't mean actual cuts. The over-supply issue is STILL not being remotely resolved.

From a pure cyclical perspective, underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) for the equity cycle is on the lower end, with the VIX naturally on the higher side.

Frankly, anyone expecting sustained/significant downside in the near term is almost certainly going to remain frustrated.

Best guess.. A Tuesday close in the sp'2030/25 zone.. with VIX 17s

If I can get that... I'll likely close out.

time for some sun............