Monday 22 February 2016

10am update - opening gains

US equities are building significant gains, and look set for the sp'1950/65 zone - where there are multiple aspects of resistance - notably the 50dma @ 1951. The bigger weekly cycles are more suggestive of 2K. Metals are under increasing pressure, Gold -$20, with Silver -1.8%. VIX has naturally lost the key 20 threshold.


sp'daily5b



sp'weekly6



Summary

*PMI manu': 51.0... a clear miss, and that should concern the macro-bulls.
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Note the weekly equity MACD (green bar histogram) cycle. We remain on the low side, and look set to tick higher at least for a few more weeks.

That sure doesn't mean we'll continue climbing at the current rate.. otherwise we'd be in the 2100s by mid March! What it does mean though... equity bears should be in no hurry.
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notable weakness... Gold

GLD, daily2


Gold is set for a bearish daily MACD cross tomorrow.. or Wednesday. In either case, it bodes for sub $1200, at least 1180/70s. At worse...  a test of the 50/200dma in the $1150/40s.. equating to GLD 110/108 zone.

I am seeking to pick up a GLD-long position by mid March. I suppose I could also go long miners (via GDX), but initially, I'll likely just stick to a straight Gold play.
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stay tuned