sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Overnight action has been broadly weak, but still...it hasn't been anything significant.. at least yet.
The bears need a clear break below sp'1908, but more importantly, the 1903/00 zone. Until sub 1900, there remains threat of a renewed rally to the 200dma in the 2060/50s.
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notable mover: Alcoa (AA), +5% in the $9.50s... as it announces it is to split into two publicly listed companies. That will solve all the structural problems, yes?
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Ms. Prins.
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Overnight Asia action
Japan: -1.3% @ 17645... broad weakness... first target remains 16500
China: Opened lower, but then the buyers (PBOC?) stepped in, the Shanghai comp' settled +0.3% @ 3100. A break under 3K remains first target... and then 2500/2000.
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Overly cautious?
I am somewhat concerned of renewed upside into mid Oct'. As things are, I will strongly consider exiting this morning. If the market can't break 1900...whether today or tomorrow.. then I'll drop any hope of further sig' downside until late Oct'.
Have a good Monday
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8.30am.. sp -15pts... 1916.
As things are.. considering futures price action.. I'm looking for an early exit (from SPY-short, VIX-long).
I'm increasigly concerned of a further wave higher... but it does NOT change my broader outlook.
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*equity bears should be VERY mindful of a likely opening black-fail candle in the VIX.. somewhere in the 25s.
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8.50am.. sp -13pts... 1918.
*I have tight stops on two positions, will likely get kicked at the open... and I'll be fine with that. I want OUT.
9.10am.. sp -10pts.. 1922.
Again, early price action does not favour the bears. A net daily gain looks increasingly a threat.
*it is notable that equity bears only need a Wed' close <1972 for a net monthly decline. That does seem very likely.
9.16am.. sp -15pts... 1916.... that probable equates to VIX 24.25 or so.....
early mover.. TVIX +7%
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9.23am. notable weakness, commodities, Gold -$15, Silver -3.3%, Oil -1.7%....
9.31am.. EXITED SPY-short.. from sp'1920.
VIX.. opens at 25.02... my stop is 25.00
9.34am.. VIX 25.15..... 5min cycle is on the high side.... I'd be surprised any move much about 25.50 by 10am....
9.36am.. Raised stop on VIX.. 25.10....
9.37am.. EXITED VIX-long.. from 25.20.
9.38am.. so.. I'm now FLAT.... am content with my exits... esp' VIX.
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9.41am.. opening VIX candle turns black-fail..... bears... beware!
9.43am... equity micro snap... with VIX breaking back upward... Hmm
Overall though.. I still don't like it.