Monday, 20 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2128. USD continues to battle higher, +0.1% at DXY 98.00. Metals have seen an overnight collapse, with Gold hitting a new cycle low of $1086, the lowest level since March 2010. Oil is a little weak, -0.2%.


Gold, monthly'2, with fibs


*I could drone on about the precious metals for pages and pages... suffice to say... original targets remain on track. Gold to $1000.. maybe 900/875, as a capitulation low.. along with Silver 12/10. Such levels have dire implications for the related mining stocks.

Pre-market, miner ETF of GDX -3%.. in the $14.90s... target is 12/10... within a few months.

As for equities, we now have two downside gaps. Clearly, the sp'2080 gap is a long way down.. and we might simply not get down that low for another month or two.

The bigger weekly cycle will have resistance around 2140/45 from today onward, given another month.... a multi-month peak around 2170/90 zone looks viable.

Best guess.. a retrace this week.. before resuming higher.

*I remain long VIX (from 12.92).. seeking the 15/16s. That does not seem overly bold a target, considering the broader weekly chart which remains warning of real trouble in the late summer.

Update from Mr C...


Doomer chat, Hunter with Fitts

Overnight China action: volatility continues to cool, with Monday seeing some relatively moderate chop, settling +0.9% @ 3992. Regardless of any weakness this week, a move to around 4300/500 seems due before the next down wave.

notable early movers.. MS, +3.5% on better than expected earnings. Like other financials, MS is no doubt hoping to dramatically increase margins if the fed will finally start to raise rates before year end.

EBAY -58% @ $27... but then... its officially split from Paypal (PYPL) today!

Have a good week.