sp'weekly1b
sp'monthly1b
Summary
The weekly candle sure ain't pretty.. taking out last weeks low. A weekly close >2100 is now out of range. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is start to tick lower, although we're still at least 2-3 weeks from a bearish cross.
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A note on the bigger picture.
I will continue to hold that the monthly 10MA is a very fair MA to delineate the primary trend. Since the marginally higher low in Sept'... the market soared back and held the 10MA for the Nov' close.
Lets be clear... if Dec' closes <2050... the default trade will switch to the short side.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the weekly jobs, import/export prices, and the US Treasury Budget.
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As for Yellen and the other maniacs at PRINT HQ
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| Back off... back OFF ! |
Despite what they periodically claim, the Fed is very much 'data dependent' on the level of US equities. It is unquestionably true that the lower the market trades, the less likely it is that the fed will raise rates.
Right now, I'm still guessing the Fed will raise rates next week, but if sp'2K is lost next Mon/Tuesday, the Fed would have the excuse they need to back off.. yet again.
As was the case early this summer, the market needs to see this uncertainly end. A 25bps rise in rates is not going to kill the economy or cause capital market upset. Ironically, Yellen had better not disappoint next Wednesday, or there will be a repeat of the Aug/Sept' equity turmoil... and next time could be considerably worse.
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I shall conclude today with the following, that perhaps summarises today's rather fierce battle between the equity doomer bears... and the bull maniacs.
I'll leave you to decide whether Kirk would be the doomer... or a maniac.
Goodnight from London