Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed broadly weak, with the sp -15pts @ 2047 (intra range 2080/36). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -1.2% respectively. With the break of the 2042 low, near term outlook is very uncertain. There is high risk of the 2020/1990 zone.. as the market is increasingly anxious ahead of the Fed.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

A new cycle low for the 'old leader' - Transports, of 7765. Right now, the first target of the 200dma (8340s).... is a long way up.. and looks out of range before year end.

The fact the transports remains at such low levels, whilst Oil is sub $40 remains pretty bizarre, and is suggestive of other underlying economic problems.
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With the break of the sp'2042 low... the equity bears now have an open door to another 2-3% lower before next weeks FOMC.

An obvious question is whether sub' sp' 2K would spook the Fed, and see them back off from raising rates, but more on that... a little later...