Saturday, 19 December 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed significantly lower, sp -36pts at 2005. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.2% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook is shaky and borderline, with threat of the 2K threshold breaking. Even a 2-4 week rally of around 4-6% is not going to break new highs.


sp'daily5



R2K



Trans



Summary

The week ended on a very negative note. Although it was quad-opex, and that was a primary reason for the extra selling into the weekend.
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Not only was there significant downside follow through from Thursday, but most notable of all.. the Transports broke a new cycle low of 7361. For those that hold to the 'old leader' as a market leader.. price action sure is increasingly bearish.

Best guess... renewed upside to the sp'2100s... but there appears increasing threat of an epic rollover in early 2016.

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a little more later...