Friday, 2 October 2015

10am update - bad news IS bad news

With the monthly jobs data coming in much lower than expected (along with lower revisions) the capital markets are upset. The sp' has decisively failed to hold the key 1900 threshold, and now looks headed for 1870/67 in the immediate term...  and that should equate to VIX 27/28s.




*EXITED DAL-SHORT.. from $43.45.. so that is 2 positions gone... 3 to go.

So.. we flipped from sp +14pts @ 8.29am to -28pts... and things look increasingly bearish.

Hourly cycles are set for bearish breaks this hour.... and in theory we should hit sp'1880 - with VIX 26s.. by lunch time.

A somewhat more important issue...


The weekly candles are looking a lot better - from a bearish perspective...  the Oct'2014 low of 1820 is viable in theory.

Anyway.. first things first.. lets see if we can get to 1870/67 this afternoon.

10.02am.. Factory orders, -1.7%... lousy number.

notable weakness: BAC -5.4% in the $14.70s.. as interest rate hikes are OFF the menu

10.19am.. little bounce to 1903.... as some are no doubt buying ahead of Fed official Fischer.. due at 12pm

.. VIX +6% in the 23.90s....

Equity bears really need to see the 25s within the next 2-3 hrs... to reflect at least some market concern