Friday 25 September 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are sharply higher, sp +22pts, we're set to open at 1954. USD continues to climb, +0.4% in the DXY 96.40s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$8, whilst Oil is a touch higher in the $45s.


sp'60min


sp'weekly


Summary

So.. what is the reason for the overnight ramp? Other than technical reasons, there is ZERO reason why this market should be able to keep pushing higher into next week.

I realise some out there are calling for a straight run to the 200dma in the 2070/60s... but to me, that seems ludicrous... considering the broken weekly/monthly cycles.
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We will have climbed from 1908 to the 1950s.. over 2% in just 5 trading hours.

*Equity bears should be fighting to see a weekly close <1958... to maintain at least some degree of net weekly decline.
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Yours truly is half short of what I held at the Thursday open. Even so, this is going to be a painful open. I will likely hold across the weekend... I ain't closing out in the 1950/60s... only to see the market fall again next week.

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Overnight Asia action...

Japan: a pretty wild session, settling +1.8% @ 17880
China: showing signs of unraveling, settling -1.6% @ 3092. Sub 3k looks probable next week.
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Have a good Friday... if you can.
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8.50am.. sp +19pts... equating to 1951.

notable weakness, Gold -$9... with the miners ETF of GDX -2.4%
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9.35am.. Opening reversal candle in the VIX from 20.81.    sp'1946...

As things are... I won't be content unless a daily close <1945.. with VIX 21/22s.