Friday 25 September 2015

Net weekly declines

It was a rather dynamic day in the US equity market, with the sp' seeing a morning low of 1908, and then seeing a somewhat natural latter day bounce to settle at 1932. The broader trend remains increasingly bearish, with all US indexes set for net weekly declines.


sp'weekly1b



sp'weekly6



Summary

*weekly 'rainbow' candle was red in the early morning with sp'1925. A weekly close with a red candle would be something I'd like to see.
--

Little to add.

The broader down trend from the FOMC high of sp'2020 continues, despite some rather powerful intraday rallies.. as seen today (1908-1937).


--
Looking ahead

Friday will see Q2 GDP (2nd rev), market is expecting 3.7%.
Other data: PMI serv', consumer sent'

*Fed officials Bullard and George are due to speak... Mr Market will be listening.
--


Disturbing viewing

The moderately anticipated Yellen speech at Amherst was largely as expected.. well, until the last 5 minutes or so when things started to turn outright disturbing.



Frankly, it increasingly looked as though Yellen was going to keel over.. and worse. I am largely contemptuous of much of her monetary policies, but I sure don't want to see someone die at the lectern. Let us not forget, 'Aunt Janet' (are you out there Oscar?) is 69 years of age.. well past any reasonable retirement. It would be very understandable if the pressure is getting to her.

Anyway... besides the speech drama, the notion of the Fed raising rates in Oct... or even at the Christmas FOMC seems like crazy talk to me. Hell, if the sp' is in the 1800s next week... mainstream talk will then swing to QE4. After all, Q1, 2, and 3 solved the macro-economic problems, why not do another one? Hell, why not just announce QE4, 5... all the way to 10 in one press release?

Goodnight from London