sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I've adjusted the hourly charts to reflect a higher lower in the VIX, and what is now a bear flag in equities.
--
Considering the severity of the overnight decline... and the break of the Friday low (sp'1953)... it would seem we can say the following...
-We saw a key high on FOMC day of sp'2020, with a VIX low in the 17s.
-Market closed net higher on Monday... but price structure was actually a bear flag.
With the overnight break into the sp'1930s.. I am ditching any hope of renewed upside to the sp'2000s.
So... now its about finding an intraday entry... which will not be easy.
If we get a morning washout by 11am.. say sp -40pts @ 1926... a bounce into the afternoon might see us bounce to 1940... but that would likely be it.
--
Overnight China action: A positive Tuesday session, with the Shanghai comp' +0.9% @ 3185. Daily upper bollinger is around 3275/3300... a move above there looks difficult.
With US/EU markets now looking in trouble, China will be set to break lower in the Wed' session... and Japan opens on Thursday of course.
-
To be clear...
I'm throwing out any hope of renewed upside to the sp'2000s, and will try to find an acceptable short entry sometime in the early afternoon. It is an annoying situation, but it is.. what it is.
Have a good Tuesday
-
6.58am...
sp' -23pts... 1943.
daily5
Anyone think we can claw back above yesterday's high of 1979?
-
8.50am.. sp -28pts.... 1938.... absolutely decisive break on any measure.
A morning floor in the 1935/25 zone looks highly probable.. before a 10/20pt bounce by the 2pm hour.
From there... the trade is arguably obvious.
early mover... TVIX/UVXY +9.5%
-
9.00am. With the USD +0.2% in the DXY 96s... metals are under high pressure.. Gold -$8... and that sure isn't helping the mining stocks. GDX -2.3%
9.40am.. VIX +12% in the 22s... kinda interesting... but this remains a lowly VIX.
Lets see where we floor this morning.... and how high can rally into the afternoon.
For now.. I sure ain't chasing.
Were I short.. .I'd have a tight stop....