Tuesday, 25 August 2015

VIX naturally cooling

Equities opened higher, but with severe closing hour weakness, the VIX rebounded (intra low 28.08), settling -11.6% @ 36.02. Near term outlook is uncertain, and will be dependent on whether the market can hold the sp'1867 level.




With the severe equity weakness into the close, the situation is far from clear.

There is high threat of further equity downside to the Oct' low of sp'1820.. which would kick the VIX back into the upper 40s.

Regardless... VIX is greatly over-extended, and a broad cooling to around 20 looks due within the next week or two.

*perhaps a more interesting question is... after a sustained multi-day equity bounce (as we're still due) how high might the VIX spike in the next equity crash cycle? Are we looking at VIX 60s.. 70s? Frankly, if sp'1700s.. then... yes.

more later... on the indexes