Friday, 14 August 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2077. The hourly equity cycle is offering the 2060s today.. and that should equate to VIX in the 15s. USD remains a little weak, -0.2% in the DXY 96.20s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$4, whilst Oil is largely flat in the low $42s.




*eyes on the VIX today... a break back >15 would bode for a break (whether late today.. or Monday) of the Wed' low of sp'2052.

Well, its the end of the week... and I'll be glad for the weekend.

The setup on ALL cycles favours the bears today. If we can see a few of the rats 'bail into the weekend', then things could spiral lower across the day.

Overnight China action: moderate chop... the Shanghai comp' touched 4000.. and FAILED, settling +0.3% @ 3965. The 3200/3000 zone looks on track next month. How the Chinese leadership will react to new lows... now that will be interesting to watch.

*I remain long-VIX, I would prefer to close out into the weekend..  15s would be a moderately acceptable exit... 16s would be great.

Have a good Friday.

8.00am... notable early strength, US bonds... TLT +0.5% in the $124.30s.

TLT, weekly

For those seeking another sig' equity down wave... look for TLT in the 125s.. whether late today.. or Monday. I'm with Armstrong on bonds... upside into early Oct'... and then we might see a multi-decade turn.

8.31am.. Producer prices, m/m +0.2%.. a touch above market exp'...

sp holding -6pts @ 2077.   A break <2070 before 11am would be useful.

9.37am.. Despite the minor opening chop... the threat of a weekly close >sp'2100 looks well out of range.

It would seem to be just a case of when the market breaks into the 2060s.. and keeps on going.

notable weakness: AAPL, -0.4%.. a fair way to reach the $100 threshold.