Friday, 14 August 2015

10am update - opening chop

US equities open with some minor chop, with the sp +3pts @ 2087. VIX remains subdued in the mid 13s. Equity bears should be seeking a break <sp'2070.. with VIX 15s... which will offer renewed clarity that the sp'2040s are coming.. with VIX 17s.




*the fourth consecutive green candle on the VIX chart... a break back above 14.50 will be a key signal.

A pretty dull open... now its case of whether today turns into a holding pattern day... or building weakness into the weekend.. with follow through downside next Mon/Tuesday to sp'2040s.

Best guess... well, I'm long-VIX.. so you know what I'm seeking.

time to cook...

10.06am  Consumer sent'  92.9....  a little lower, but still... on the high side since late 2014.

Eyes on TLT, currently a touch lower in the $123.50s....   equity bears are going to need 125s to see new cycle lows.. and clearly.. that now looks out of range until next week.