Friday, 31 July 2015

The Mighty Dow is weak

The Dow is weak, and this is increasingly apparent on the giant monthly cycle. Despite a marginal new historic high of 18351 in May, the Dow has effectively been flat lining since February. A Friday/July close under the monthly 10MA - currently @ 17733 would offer another indication of 'trouble into the early autumn'.


Dow, monthly'2



Dow, weekly'1b


Summary

A fifth consecutive blue candle on the giant monthly 'rainbow' chart... with price action looking like a flat top.

I will be looking for a monthly close <17733 at the Friday close.

As for the weekly chart, despite the current net weekly gain, we did see a break of trend on Monday, and for now... the closing weekly candle will result in a lower high.. and a lower low.


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Looking ahead

Friday will see Employment cost, Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.

*since it will be a weekly and monthly close, expect increasing vol' in the afternoon. As is generally the case, higher vol'.. will very likely equate to lower prices.
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Somewhat less cautious

Today, after some further consideration, I picked up a secondary short-term trading block. I went short INTC.. which is a stock I've been bearish about since it maxed out at $35 in early June. I am increasingly seeing individual stocks with increasingly bearish price structure. As ever, I will try to trade in/out of positions as best I can, but wish to be broadly short the US market into early October.

Goodnight from London