sp'daily5
VIX'weekly'2
Summary
Well, its the end of another month.. and for the chart maniacs out there.. how we close the month is always an important issue.
For me... I want to see the VIX climb into the weekend, and see the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) turn back positive. A neg' monthly close certainly doesn't negate hope of equity downside into Sept/Oct, but I'd sure feel better about things if we do close back above the zero threshold.
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*awaiting Chicago PMI, market is expecting 50.0. Anything in the 49s.. or certainly 48s will again be a warning that things ain't so great out there.
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early movers...
oil/gas drillers, SDRL -2.4%.. as Oil resumes lower
EXPE +8.3%... post earnings
LNKD -5.8% @ $214.. which is a rather severe reversal from the initial earnings reaction of +12%.
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Overnight China action... China ended the month on a negative note, settling -1.1% @ 3663. The monthly decline (will post more on it later)... confirmed the big turn in June. Further weakness to the 3200/3000 zone looks a given. Considering its only July.... with a 'window of weakness' into Sept/Oct... I'd not be surprised to see 2500 before the retail-gambling madness resumes higher into next year.
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Have a good Friday.
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8.02am... XOM earnings... clear miss... EPS @ $1.... a year ago.. it was earning over $3 per quarter!
initial stock reaction.. a little lower, -0.9% @ $82.00
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meanwhile... others are getting credit for my messages...
Bearish media hack interns.
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8.25am... Energy stocks having real problems... XOM -1.8%... CVX -1.1%.. the latter has earnings at 9am
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Indexes cooling, sp -4pts... 2104.
Equity bears need to see a break <2090 today.. with VIX 14s.... that will offer clarity for next week.
8.31am.. and futures jump from -4 to +1pt..... on 'employment cost' data, +0.2%... lower than expected... hence market looking for less chance of rate hike in Sept'
8.34am. CVX.. EPS 30 cents.. vs $1.16 estimate.. another huge miss..... CVX -1.6%...
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With the employ' cost data... USD has snapped lower, -0.7%... which is helping Gold/Oil recover.
The bigger data point remains PMI... due at 9.45am.
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USD smack down... -0.9% in the DXY 96.60s.... but still net higher on the month.
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8.43am.. Well... its an old fashioned 'dollar lower... everything else UP' situation... USD -1.0%.. with sp now +3pts... 2111.
Gold reversing from -7 to +2. Even Oil is back to -1.1%
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9.00am.. With 'bad news is good news'... sp +5pts... 2113... a mere 1.1% from a new historic high.
Barring an opening reversal.. this is starting to look ugly for the equity bears... as USD rapidly cools.
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9.33am.. shaky opening gains..... eyes sharp for reversal candles......
9.35am.. black-fail candles appearing all over the place..
notable weakness: INTC -0.3%.... not looking pretty.
9.45am.. CHICAGO PMI 54.7.... a clear beat.... and out of recessionary territory.
Now the market will be concerned about rate rises again, lol