Eyes on the VIX

With equities closing higher for a second consecutive day, the VIX was naturally whacked lower. Based on many previous cycles, 2-3 weeks of a subdued VIX appear likely. By mid August though, there will be a very high threat of a renewed.. and particularly powerful surge in market volatility.


VIX'weekly

VIX'monthly

Summary

*note the upper bollinger on the giant monthly cycle - currently around the key 20 threshold.. where the VIX got stuck last Thursday.
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Suffice to say, I am expecting the VIX to see some sustained action in the 20s in the late summer/early Autumn. Whether we briefly break into the 30s... difficult to say.

For now.. I am content to watch VIX.. but will likely pick up some Sept/Oct option calls in early August.

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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see retail sales, import/export prices, and business inventories.

*fed official George will speak.. but that is not until after the close.
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Goodnight from London