Thursday 2 July 2015

China remains very volatile

The Wednesday trading session saw further volatility for the China market, settling -5.2% @ 4053. Near term outlook remains bearish, with the 3400s remaining the natural target in the current wave. For Mr retail amateur in China.. it remains a pretty hellish time.


China, daily



China, monthly


Summary

Most notable, June was the first significant net monthly decline since June 2013. The closing candle was of the bearish engulfing type... with a spiky top... highly indicative of lower levels in the coming month or two.

Lets be clear..  if the 3400s don't hold... next support is not until 2500. A drop from 5100s to 2500... a clear 50% all out crash. Considering the stock bubble from summer 2014, this is a viable doomer scenario by this October.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly and monthly jobs data, along with factory orders data.

Since the US market is closed on Friday, there will be some distinct end week/holiday trading issues.. volume will likely be light... with price action inclined to the downside as some of the rats will want to avoid holding long across the weekend.

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Goodnight from London