sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*opening reversal candle in the VIX... a slight problem for equity bulls.
--
It is a pretty complex situation...
The underlying issue across today will be one of 'who wants to hold long across the holiday weekend?'. With the uncertainty of a Greek referendum... there will surely be some significant number of the rats who want OUT before the close.
In terms of upside.. there is a clear gap zone of 2098/2101.... and that is certainly viable by the close of today.
If by some miracle we're trading around 2095/2100 at the close of today, it'd arguably make for a bonus EXIT opportunity for the bull maniacs.
-
Long day ahead... but hey.... its almost the weekend :)
Yours truly is rather content on the sidelines... I really don't think the bears can look for any sustained significant downside until the mid August-October time frame. Until then... I'm even more cautious than normal.
I suppose I could go long INTC.. but not in the $30s... I'd only consider the low 29s.
-
notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -7.7%... continued horror
10.01am Factory orders -1.0%... pretty lousy.. nothing good there, and unlike the Govt' jobs data.. it is a far more reliable data point.
10.09am.. VIX turns positive.. .there is a clear gap of 17.25/18.25.. which would equate to the sp'2050s again.
Hmm.... traders twitchy into the weekend...
10.15am.. From a pure MACD cycle perspective.. this is a lousy setup for the bulls into the weekly close. We're due a down cycle.
Again... who wants to hold long into the weekend?
-