USD weekly
China, monthly, 20yr
Summary
First... the USD.
I had been expecting a 1-2 week bounce... but this move is already borderline 'overly strong'. A few daily closes in the 98s would bode for new multi-year highs (>100.71) in June, with a viable fast move to the 120s by the autumn... which would absolutely cause some degree of market shock across the world capital markets.
Re: China
I remember last summer when I continued to highlight 3500 as a valid target.... and we're now 40% above that target.. in just ten months!
The China market has seen a truly incredible hyper-ramp since last summer. A major retrace is clearly viable at ANY time this summer/autumn. Core support is the old resistance of 3500. On no outlook does sustained price action <3500 look possible.
Regardless of any retrace... new historic highs (>6124) in the Shanghai comp' look due late 2015/early 2016... and then onward to 8-10K.
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**Bonus chart... to end an interesting day
Copper, monthly
After 3 months of gains, Copper has got stuck under the $3 threshold. A net monthly decline looks due. Key downside target remains the low $2s. Copper is highly suggestive Gold/Silver will similarly continue lower across the summer/early autumn.
*I remain short Gold - via GLD, broadly looking to be short all the way to $1000.
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Looking ahead
There is nothing of significance due this Wednesday... even the EIA oil report is pushed out to Thursday (due to the holiday).
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Goodnight from London