Friday, 3 April 2015

US monthly jobs data

Whilst the US market will remain firmly shut until Monday, the latest US monthly jobs data were a major miss. Net monthly gains totalled just 126k, with a static headline jobless rate of 5.5%. Equity futures reacted with initial moderate declines.


sp' weekly


Summary

Monthly jobs:  126K net gains, headline rate 5.5%

Clearly, a significant miss - market had been seeking 247k...  as Q1 across the last five years continues to.... suck.

Average workweek ticked a touch lower to 34.5hrs
Average hourly earnings (month/month) jumped from 0.1% to 0.3%

*Also notable that revisions for Jan/Feb, totalled around -60k.
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re: futures reaction.

Equity futures were a touch higher ahead of the data, sp +1pt, offering 2068

Initial reaction was sp -7pts... offering 2060.  It would seem that at least to begin with, market is seeing bad news as bad news. Ohh the humanity!


8.46am Notable weakness in the USD, -0.8% @ DXY 96.70s.

Keep in mind, a very natural retracement of the giant ramp from summer 2014 would be back to the breakout zone of 90/87. That is clearly going to take at least a few months to play out.

From there though, upside target will be the DXY 120s... along with Euro/Dollar 0.80s... that would have some very strong negative implications for US exporters. On the flip side though, US imports will be much cheaper, making the US the place to be... at least in terms of being a consumer,


9.03am.. Equity futures still sliding, sp -12pts,  2054


11am Futures market settled, around sp -20pts... giving 2047.... just 8pts above the key low of 2039.

So.. next Monday.... will be interesting. Arguably... bears get one more shot at breaking 2039... otherwise.... up we go to new highs into May.
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End week doom chatter from Hunter


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*the weekend post - on the world monthly indexes, will be published later today.