Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +7pts @ 2066 (intra high 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook remains bearish, with the sp'2039 low set to be broken next Monday. The bigger issue is whether 200dma will hold... although that has already failed for the Trans'.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*notable weakness in the Transports.. with a daily/weekly close under the 200dma.. it bodes in favour of the bears next week, and is suggestive of a break <sp'2039.
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There is little to add...

Best guess remains.. the sp'2039 low will be taken out.. but it will be very difficult to break the 200dma on the sp'500. Seasonally, equity bears can't have much hope of any significant/sustained weakness until late April/early May.

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a little more later...