Tuesday, 21 April 2015

The week begins bullish

US equities began the week on a positive note, after some concern across the weekend. Yet, with the PBOC cutting the RRR by 100bps to 18.5%, the broader trend has resumed. New historic highs for all US indexes look due into May.... at least to the sp'2120/30s.


Nasdaq, monthly'2


*Nasdaq comp' still looks set to take out the March 2000 high of 5132. A monthly close in the 5200s should clarify a straight up move to at least 6k.. perhaps even 7k by year end.

For those seeking an inter'4 drop this summer/autumn.. if we do see Nasdaq 5200s.. it strongly argues against any sig' down wave (on the order of 15/20%) this year.

So, the week begins with a new green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, with price action having been stuck within a narrow range since the high of sp'2119 of late February.

The sp'2120/30s look an easy target within the next few weeks. A bigger upside target would be the 2170/80s.. as suggested by the giant monthly cycle, although that will likely take until at least mid June.

Update on the USD


A net Monday gain of 0.4% @ 98.16. As noted at the weekend, we just need a move under 97 for a decisive break of rising trend... opening up 93/92 within a month or two.

Looking ahead

There is of course a truck load of corp' earnings, but there is no sig' econ-data due.

*it is notable there are no fed officials on the loose this week (do they all go away on holiday to the same place together?), to debate monetary policy?

Goodnight from London