Friday, 6 February 2015

USD cooling... for a little

After seven months of consecutive net monthly gains, the USD appears to be settling into a cooling phase... which could easily last some weeks. A weaker USD will especially help take the downward pressure off Oil, but regardless of any minor retrace, the USD remains the best of the 'dirty paper'.

USD, monthly


A January high of 95.85.. and now we're in the 93s. Certainly, there is a viable (and very natural) retrace to the breakout level of the 87s.. where the monthly 10MA will be in March/April.

Unquestionably though.. the USD is in the early phase of a multi-year up wave. I'm looking for at least the DXY 120 level. Others - not least Armstrong, appear to be seeking 160 as a baseline target.... which is a pretty bizarre thought!

As for US equities...


We have a VERY bullish weekly candle now.. a classic 'bullish engulfing' type... having broken below last weeks low.. but now above last weeks high. A green candle bodes for a break >sp'2064 tomorrow... and eventually into the 2100s.

Looking ahead

Friday will largely be about the monthly jobs data. Market is expecting 230k net gains, with a static headline jobless rate of 5.6%. Those targets do not look overly optimistic, and I expect them to be met.

There is also consumer credit data at 3pm

Goodnight from London