Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Volatility continues to climb

With equities breaking a new cycle low of sp'1992, the VIX made a new cycle high of 22.90. With equities clawing moderately upward in late afternoon, the VIX cooled, settling +6.0% @ 21.12. Near term outlook is uncertain.... but VIX still looks set to get knocked back to the low teens as the month proceeds.



*at current rate of trend, VIX 25/26 will be viable on Wednesday, and 29/31 on Friday. The latter seems highly improbable though.

Suffice to say... a new cycle high...but the daily candle is suggestive that a top might now be in.

In any case, the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is at the upper end of its natural cycle... equity bears have at best... a few more days before the VIX gets smashed lower again.

more later... on the indexes