Thursday, 29 January 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed significantly lower, sp -27pts @ 2002 (intra low 2001). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.5% and -1.6% respectively. Equity bears have had to battle hard just to get close to the 2K threshold. With renewed weakness, the 200dma in the sp'1970s is now within range before the weekend.




*the closing hour was a real failure for the equity bulls.

So, we had opening moderate gains.. quickly failed, with a low of sp'2019. A little rally, but with another cycle low after the FOMC announcement (lower Oil prices greatly helped achieve that).. with a particularly bearish closing hour.

Daily cycles now look rough into the weekend... with the 200dma in the sp'1970s now viable.. before another push higher.

Price structure is a real mess. As many recognise..the waves are overlapping, and trying to count this nonsense is arguably pointless at the moment. I don't see a H/S formation, more a market that has been consolidating sideways since early December.

With ECB QE-pomo set to start in March... the bears face major problems this spring. For now.. this remains a real choppy.. and 'somewhat' volatile market... but one that is STILL close to historic highs.

a little more later...