Wednesday, 28 January 2015

2pm update - time for some fed nonsense

US equities are naturally in a holding pattern ahead of the fed press release at 2pm. The hourly equity MACD cycles remain negative cycle, and frankly.. this makes for a lousy setup for those currently short. There remains high risk of a daily close in the sp'2050s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$8




*there is NO Yellen press conf. so after some initial swings.. we'll likely have a clear direction by 2.15pm or so.

Best guess... a daily close in the 2048/52 area.. which will easily keep open the 2070s by the Friday close.

*I realise many are still seeking the 1970/60s in the near term, but from a pure cyclical perspective...the bears look in real danger here.

2.01pm.. 'Fed to remain patient'..... make of that bizarre headline.. as you wish.

Indexes a touch higher.. but what matters.. is how we close!

2.11pm.. sp'2026... chop chop... unless 2019 fails.... those short are getting a chance to bail.

Certainly, price action doesn't appear particularly weak...

2.22pm... sp'2028....  tick tock............... bears had their chance.... looks like a fail.

Hourly cycle offering a snap higher at the Thursday open (for whatever reason you wish to attribute).

2.26pm.. Oil and the metals are unravelling... Oil breaks a new cycle low of $44.08.     Gold -$13

2.34pm... new cycle low of sp'2017....  lower oil prices are wrecking the energy stocks... which is causing particular trouble for the energy laden R2K, -1.0%

Hmm... possible support around sp'2012.... but clearly.. any day-trading bulls.. .should already have got the boot.