Tuesday 25 November 2014

Who's Right?

Another quiet day for the US equity market, but with a notable new historic high in the 'old leader' - Transports of 9177. The giant 10k threshold is set to be broken in early 2015... which would be highly suggestive of the sp'2200s.



Trans, daily


R2K, monthly


Summary

So... another new high in the 'old leader', set for the giant 10k threshold early next year. That will surely also mean the R2K breaks the double top of 1212/13, which itself will mean the broader market has very considerable upside still ahead.

I'm well aware many will be calling a key top in the sp'2100s.. but why would it stop there? Sure, a retrace back to the giant 2000 level would be natural - whether next month, or Jan/Feb, but it will merely be another one of those minor pull backs.

Once we're in the sp'2200s - which seems highly probable by March/April, it should then bode for a straight up move to 3k.

Call it 'crazy talk', a 'twisted sign of capitulation', or whatever you want, but that is how I see things.


VIX remaining subdued

VIX, daily3


If a retrace to sp'2000, then clearly VIX will climb into the upper teens... but that now seems more likely in Jan/Feb.
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Closing update from Riley

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Looking ahead

Amongst a few bits and pieces tomorrow, we have GDP (first rev').. market is expecting a slight downward revision from 3.5% to 3.3%. So long as the number comes in >3%.. market should be fine. Anything under <2.5% would be a problem, but then.. that is equally bullish.. since rates would then be anticipated to be increased at a later date.. yes?
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Goodnight from London