Monday, 3 November 2014

10am update - mixed open

US equities open somewhat mixed, with fractional new historic highs in the Dow (17398) and Sp'500 (2020). Metals are weak, Gold -$2, with Silver -0.6%. Oil is starting to slide, -1.1%. VIX is trying to build minor gains, +3% in the 14.50s.




I find the action in the VIX more telling than anything else. Even the huge equity gains on Friday weren't able to crush the VIX much lower. But then.. when the VIX is in the low teens, it can't go much lower, right?

Best case for bears.. VIX back into the 20/25 zone... but that will certainly mean the market doesn't break <sp'1900 in the remainder of the year.

A pretty depressing thought.

Notable weakness, TWTR -2.2%, now at first support of $40/39

10.02am... micro 5/15min cycles look ready to roll lower...sp'2010/05 seems viable.. with VIX 15/16s.

10.30am minor weakness... clearly, nothing significant due until after the US elections on Wednesday.

At best, a weekly close of 1985/75, with VIX in the 17/18s. Not exactly inspiring... since those are the levels from just last Thursday.