sp'weekly6
Summary
To begin, I want to say... 'hello deflationland... I never thought sp'1950 was at all viable... it'd seem you were right this time!'.
With the daily close <1980.... it would be very natural for Mr Market to wash out one final wave of equity bulls... with a brief move to 1950 tomorrow - where the 200dma is lurking, along with the 50% fib retrace of the 1820/2079 wave.
Equity bears should - on any 'reasonable outlook', be looking to get out ahead of the Yellen press conf. There is viable chance the market will briefly spike lower at 2pm.. only to whipsaw at 2.05/15pm... which is something I've seen so many times across the last few years.
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Looking ahead
Wed' will see CPI and Current acc' data.
The big event of course will be the FOMC announcement, due @ 2pm. Market is expecting a mere 'wording change' with 'extended/considerable' removed, in relation to interest rates.
Fed chair Yellen will host a press conf. around 2.15/30pm, and that will likely last an hour.
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The Russian market continues to crash
With the loss of the 800 level yesterday, it was another dire day for the Russian market, with a net daily decline of -13.2%.
Russia, monthly
Next key support is around 550, and it is notable that we did hit an intra low of 578. I do not expect the 400/300s.. as some are beginning to suggest. Oil is due for a $15/20 bounce (to the low $70s), and that will no doubt give the Russian market a massive kick higher in early 2015.. along with most other world markets.
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Enjoy Wednesday
Tomorrow will almost certainly be the last major trading day of the year. It has been another crazy year, much of it.. very annoying to those with a bearish inclination.
No doubt, the Yellen will do her best to placate the market tomorrow, and on balance, I still believe most indexes will close this week net higher (>sp'2002). The sp'2100s do look a given... it is surely just a case of whether it occurs before year end (if somewhat unlikely)... or in January.
Goodnight from London