Tuesday 16 December 2014

The equity bear window is closing

It was a pretty interesting day in market land, with a major morning fail for the bull maniacs.. the sp'500 swinging from 2018 to 1982 by midday. Yet... with the FOMC announcement this Wednesday (2pm), the window for the equity bears is soon to close.


sp'weekly6 - with fibs


Summary

So.. the second consecutive red candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart.. with a new cycle low of sp'1982. Overall though, once we get the fed out of the way, I'll be looking for renewed upside into the quad-opex weekly close, and all the way into January.


Russia remains in crash mode

With oil prices continuing to fall, the Russian market lost another -9.4% today... now at 725.

Russia, monthly


Next support is not until 550... that is another 175pts (25%) lower!

*as for the interest rate rise from 10.5% to 17%... I think I'll leave others to comment on that huge issue.. at least for today.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see housing starts and PMI manu' data.
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Still short the miners

I've been keeping it 'light' across the last few weeks. No index trades (not least on the short side!)... no VIX... not much of anything. However, I've been holding onto a small GDX (option put) short position.. which saw a powerful drop today...

GDX, daily


I remain seeking broad weakness for the precious metals (Gold $1100/1080 is just about viable by year end)... and that should naturally result in continued weakness in the mining stocks.

Early next year I'll be looking to pick up a number of key long term positions... but more on that.. as we get closer to year end.

Goodnight from London